A regional housing authority is building the case for a new tax measure that could land on Palo Alto ballots in November 2028, with options on the table ranging from parcel taxes to business head taxes to real estate transfer fees.

The Bay Area Housing Finance Authority is running a multi-year stakeholder process to decide what kind of revenue tool to put before voters across all nine Bay Area counties. A subcommittee is evaluating parcel taxes, general obligation bonds, gross receipts taxes, per-employee "head taxes," sales taxes, payroll taxes and real estate transfer taxes, weighing each for revenue potential, equity and political viability, according to MTC documents.

Any measure would require a two-thirds supermajority to pass, according to BAHFA's governing statute.

The threshold is high. But the process is already underway.

Regina Celestin Williams, executive director of Santa Clara County housing advocacy group SV@Home, is representing the South Bay on the Regional Housing Stakeholder Committee that is shaping the proposal. SV@Home disclosed its role in a blog post published Aug. 12, saying the organization wants to connect the regional process to local affordable housing developers, community groups and local governments in Santa Clara County.

The process is structured in three phases. Phase 1, running through approximately October 2026, focuses on stakeholder engagement and developing a unified policy framework. Phase 2 in 2027 would pursue state legislation needed to expand BAHFA's authority beyond what's already allowed under AB 1487, the 2019 law that created the agency. Phase 3 could produce a ballot measure in 2028.

Some tools already authorized under state law include GO bonds backed by property taxes, parcel taxes and gross receipts taxes. Others under discussion, including sales taxes, payroll taxes and real estate transfer taxes, would require new legislation in Sacramento before they could appear on a ballot.

The affordability numbers driving the effort are stark. In Santa Clara County, monthly mortgage payments now run about 3.2 times monthly rent for a two-bedroom home, according to the California Legislative Analyst's Office. The income needed to afford average asking rent in the county is roughly $10,767 per month, or about $62 an hour, NBC Bay Area reported in January 2026.

Plan Bay Area 2050+, the regional blueprint adopted by MTC and ABAG in March 2026, explicitly identifies the 2028 measure as a key implementation step, finding that 59% of Bay Area households earning $50,000 to $75,000 spent more than 35% of their income on housing in 2023.

"If you allow the market to dictate, rents get extreme," Williams told NBC Bay Area in January 2026, discussing San Jose's housing affordability crisis. "Once rent is set at $6,000, no one's going to lower it."

BAHFA's board is composed of the same members as the Metropolitan Transportation Commission. The stakeholder committee is using what it calls a "Gradients of Agreement" process to map where organizations align and where they differ, rather than assuming consensus.

For Palo Alto property owners, employers and renters, the timeline means the contours of a potential new tax obligation are being drawn now, with limited public attention so far. The committee's Phase 1 work continues through fall 2026.